Robert James Shiller

Americký ekonom Robert James Shiller se narodil 29. března 1946 v Detroitu, Michigan, a jeho předci pocházejí z Litvy. Profesor Shiller v současnosti přednáší na Yale University v New Haven.

B.A. má od roku 1967 z University of Michigan, Ph.D. získal roku 1972 na M.I.T.

Roku 2005 byl Shiller viceprezidentem American Economic Association, 2006-2007 pak presidentem Eastern Economic Association. Roku 1999 spoluzakládal společnost MacroMarkets LLC (Madison, NJ) a působí zde ve funkci hlavního ekonoma.

Shiller je od roku 1976 ženatý (psycholožka Virginia „Ginny“ Faulstich), má dva syny – Benjamina a Dereka.

Zajímá se o široce vymezenou problematiku – od behaviorálních financí k nemovitostem a krizovému řízení. Známý je tzv. Case-Shiller index, používaný při oceňování nemovitostí.

Je jedním z kritiků tzv. teorie efektivních trhů a je zastáncem toho názoru, že v horizontu tří až pěti let lze chování akciových trhů do jisté míry předjímat. Varoval před krizí hypotečního trhu, (collapse of the real-estate bubbles), tedy počátku finanční krize ve Spojených státech, kterou předpověděl právě za pomoci svých modelů. Varoval tehdy, že ceny nemovitostí nejsou v souladu s racionálními modely, ale jsou značně nadhodnocené, k čemuž však dochází i dnes, takže podobný vývoj by se dal očekávat i v blízké budoucnosti.

Obchod je dle Shillera založen na pudovém a emocionálním chování těch, kteří s akciemi obchodují. Shiller tak zároveň klade velký důraz na neracionální chování investorů.

Ukázal, že ceny akcií lze určitým způsobem předvídat, ovšem v dlouhodobém horizontu odhadu, tedy s výhledem v řádu několika let, nikoli však dní.

Knihy

SHILLER, R. J. Finance and the good society. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2013.

KROSZNER, R. S., SHILLER, R. J. Reforming U.S. financial markets. Reflections before and beyond Dodd-Frank. MIT Press, 2011.

AKERLOF, G. A., SHILLER, R. J. Animal spirits: How human psychology drives the economy, and why it matters for global capitalism. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2009, 2010.

SHILLER, R. J. The subprime solution. MIT Press, 2008.

SHILLER, R. J. Irrational exuberance. Brunswick: Scribe Publications, 2000.

SHILLER, R. J. The new financial order: Risk on the 21st century. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2003, 2009.

SHILLER, R. J. Market volatility. MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, 1992.

 

Články

FRENCH, K. R., BAILY, M., CAMPBELL, J., COCHRANE, J., DIAMOND, D., DUFFIE, D., KASHYAP, A., MISCHKIN, F., RAJAN, R., SCHARFSTEIN, D., SHILLER, R. J., SHI, H. S. The Squam Lake report: Fixing the financial system. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 2010, vol. 22, no. 3, p. 8 – 21.

KAMSTRA, M., SHILLER, R. J. Trills instead of t-bills: Its time to replace part of government debt with shares in GDP. The Economists‘ Voice, 2010, vol. 7, no. 3, p. 1 – 5.

SHILLER, R. J. Policies to deal with the implosion in the mortage market. The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 2009, vol. 9, no. 3, p. 1 – 25.

SHILLER, R. J. Unlearned lessons from the housing bubble. The Economist‘ Voice, 2009, vol. 6, no. 7, p. 1 – 2.

SHILLER, R. J. Life-cycle personal accounts proposals for social security: An evaluation of president Bush’s proposal. Journal of Policy Modeling, 2006, vol. 28, no. 4, p. 427 – 444.

SHILLER, R. J. Long-term perspectives on the current boom in home prices. The Economists‘ Voice, 2006, vol. 3, no. 4, p. 1 – 11.

SHILLER, R. J. Tools for financial innovation: Neoclassical versus behavioral finance. The Financial Review, 2006, vol. 41, no. 1, p. 1 – 8.

SHILLER, R. J. Shiller comments on Geanakoplos. American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 2005, vol. 64, no. 1, p. 307 – 310.

SHILLER, R. J. Behavioral economics and institutional innovation. Southern Economic Journal, 2005, vol. 72, no. 2, p. 269 – 283.

SHILLER, R. J. Life-cycle portfolios as government policy. The Economists‘ Voice, 2005, vol. 2, no. 1, p. 1 – 9.

JUNG, J., SHILLER, R. J. Samuelson’s dictum and the stock market. Economic Inquiry, 2005, vol. 43, no. 2, p. 221 – 228.

SHILLER, R. J. In memory of Franco Modigliani, 1918 – 2003. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2004, vol. 8, no. 01, p. 1 – 2.

CASE, K. E., SHILLER, R. J. Is there a bubble in the housing market? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2003, vol. 34, no. 2, p. 299 – 362.

SHILLER, R. J. Social security and individual accounts as elements of overal risk-sharing. American Economic Review, 2003, vol. 93, no. 2, p. 343 – 347.

ATHANASOULIS, S., SHILLER, R. J. Defining residual risk-sharing opportunities: Pooling world income components. Yale School of Management Workong Papers ysm209, Yale School of Management, 2001.

SHILLER, R. J. The ET interview: Professor James Tobin. Econometric Theory, 1999, vol. 15, no. 06, p. 897 – 900.

SHILLER, R. J., WEISS, A. N. Evaluating real estate valuation systems. The Journal of Real Estate Valuation Systems, 1999, vol. 18, no. 2, p. 147 – 161.

ATHANASOULIS, S., SHILLER, R. J., van WINCOOP, E. Macro markets and financial security. Economic Policy Review, 1999, no. Apr., p. 21 – 39.

ATHANASOULIS, S. G., SHILLER, R. J. World income components: Measuring and exploiting risk-sharing opportunities. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1239, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1999.

SHILLER, R. J., KON-YA, F., TSUTSUI, Y. Why did the Nikkei crash? Expanding the scope of expectations data collection. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1996, vol. 78, no. 1, p. 156 – 164.

SHILLER, R. J. Conversation, information, and herd behavior. American Economic Review, 1995, vol. 85, no. 2, p. 181 – 185.

CASE, K. E., SHILLER, R. J. A decade of boom and bust in the prices of single-family homes: Boston and Los Angeles, 1983 to 1993. New England Economic Review, 1994, no. March, p. 40 – 51.

SHILLER, R. J. The theory of index-based futures and options markets. Estudios Económicos, 1993, vol. 8, no. 2, p. 163 – 178.

SHILLER, R. J., BOYCKO, M., KOROBOV, V. Hunting for Homo Sovieticus: Situational versus attitudinal factors in economic behavior. Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, 1992, vol. 23, no. 1, p. 127 – 194.

CAMPBELL, J. Y., SHILLER, R. J. Yield spreads and interest rate movements: A bird’s eye view. Review of Economic Studies, 1991, vol. 58, no. 3, p. 495 – 514.

FAIR, R. C., SHILLER, R. J. Comparing information in forecasts from econometric models. American Economic Review, 1990, vol. 80, no. 3, p. 375 – 389.

CASE, K. E., SHILLER, R. J. Forecasting prices and excess returns in the housing market. Real Estate Economics, 1990, vol. 18, no. 3, p. 253 – 273.

SHILLER, R. J. Market volatility and investor behavior. American Economic Review, 1990, vol. 80, no. 2, p. 58 – 62.

SHILLER, R. J. A Scott-type regressions test of the dividend ratio model. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1990, vol. 72, no. 2, p. 356 – 361.

SHILLER, R. J. Speculative prices and popular models. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1990, vol. 4, no. 2, p. 55 – 65.

SHILLER, R. J. Business cycles, financial crises, and stock volatility: A comment. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1989, vol. 31, no. 1, p. 127 – 132.

SHILLER, R. J. Comovements in stock prices and comovements in dividends. Journal of Finance, 1989, vol. 44, no. 3, p. 719 – 729.

SHILLER, R. J., POUND, J. Survey evidence on diffusion of ineterest and information among investors. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 1989, vol. 12, no. 1, p. 47 – 66.

CASE, K. E., SHILLER, R. J. The efficiency of the market for single-family homes. American Economic Review, 1989, vol. 79, no. 1, p. 125 – 137.

CASE, K. E., SHILLER, R. J. The behavior of home buyers in boom and post-boom markets. New England Economic Review, 1988, no. Nov., p. 29 – 46.

CAMPBELL, J. Y., SHILLER, R. J. Interpreting cointegrated models. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1988, vol. 12, no. 2 – 3, p. 505 -522.

SHILLER, R. J. The probability of gross violation of a present value variance inequality. Journal of Political Economy, 1988, vol. 96, no. 5, p. 1089 – 1092.

CAMPBELL, J. Y., SHILLER, R. J. Stock prices, earnings, and expected dividends. Journal of Finance, 1988, vol. 43, no. 3, p. 661 – 676.

CASE, K. E., SHILLER, R. J. Prices of single-family homes since 1970: new indexes for four cities. New England Economic Review, 1987, no. Sept., p. 45 – 56.

SHILLER, R. J. Ultimate. American Economic Review, 1987, vol. 77, no. 2, p. 87 – 92.

SHILLER, R. J. The Marsh-Merton model of managers‘ smoothing of dividends. American Economic Review, 1986, vol. 76, no. 3, p. 499 – 503.

SHILLER, R. J. An unbiased reexamination of stock market volatility: Discussion. Journal of Finance, 1985, vol. 40, no. 3, p. 688 – 689.

SHILLER, R. J., CAMPBELL, J. Y., SCHOENHOLTZ, K. L. Forward rates and future policy: Interpreting the term structure of interest rates. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1983, vol. 14, no. 1, p. 173 – 224.

SHILLER, R. J. Do stock prices move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in dividends?: Reply. American Economic Review, 1983, vol. 73, no. 1, p. 236 – 237.

SHILLER, R. J. Consumption, asset markets and macroeconomic fluctuations. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1982, vol. 17, no. 1, p. 203 – 238.

GROSSMAN, S. J., SHILLER, R. J. Consumption correlatedness and risk measurement in economies with non-traded assets and heterogenous information. Journal of Financial Economics, 1982, vol. 10, no. 2, p. 195 – 210.

GROSSMAN, S. J., SHILLER, R. J. The determinants of the variability of stock market prices. American Economic Review, vol. 71, no. 2, p. 222 – 227.

SHILLER, R. J. The use of volatility measures in assesing market efficieny. Journal of Finance, 1981, vol. 36, no. 2, p. 291 – 304.

SHILLER, R. J. The volatility of long-term interest rates and expectations models of the term structure. Journal of Political Economy, 1979, vol. 87, no. 6, p. 1190 – 1219.

SHILLER, R. J., MODIGLIANI, F. Coupon and tax effects on new and seasoned bond yields and the measurement of the cost of debt capital. Journal of Financial Economics, 1979, vol. 7, no. 3, p. 297 – 318.

SHILLER, R. J., SIEGEL, J. The Gibson paradox and historical movements in real interest rates. Journal of Political Economy, 1977, vol. 85, no. 5, p. 891 – 907.

SHILLER, R. J. A distributed lag estimator derived from smoothness priors. Econometrica, 1973, vol. 41, no. 4, p. 775 – 788.

MODIGLIANI, F., SHILLER, R. J. Inflation, rational expectations and the term structure of interest rates. Economica, 1973, vol. 40, no. 157, p. 12 – 43.

SHILLER, R. J. Rational expectations and the term structure of interest rates: Comment. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1973, vol. 5, no. 3, p. 856 – 860.

 

Working papers, proceedings, přednášky, aj.

CASE, K. E., QUIGLEY, J. M., SHILLER, R. J. Wealth effects revisited: 1975 – 2012. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1884, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 2012.

CASE, K. E., SHILLER, R. J., THOMPSON, A. What have they been thinking? Home buyer behavior in hot and cold markets. NBER Working Papers 18400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 2012.

SHILLER, R. J., WOJAKOWSKI, R. M., EBRAHIM, M. S., SHACKLETON, M. B. Continuous workout mortgages. NBER Working Papers 17007, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 2011.

CASE, K. E., QUIGLEY, J. M., SHILLER, R. J. Wealth effect revisited: 1978 – 2009. Cowles Foundation discussion Papers 1784, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 2011.

CAMPBELL, J. Y., SHILLER, R. J., VICEIRA, L. M. Understanding inflation-indexed bond markets. NBER Working Papers 15014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 2009.

KAMSTRA, M. J., SHILLER, R. J. The case for trills: Giving the people and their pension funds a stake in the wealth of the nation. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1717, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 2009.

KAMSTRA, M., SHILLER, R. J. The case for trills: Giving Canadians and their pension funds a stake in the wealth of the nation. C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, no. 271, 2008.

SHILLER, R. J. Derivatives markets for home prices. NBER Working Papers 13962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 2008.

SHILLER, R. J. Historic turning points in real estate. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1610, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 2007.

SHILLER, R. J. Low interest rates and high asset prices: An interpretation in terms of changing popular economic models. NBER Working Papers 13558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 2007.

SHILLER, R. J. Understanding recent trends in house prices and home ownership. NBER Working Papers 13553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 2007.

SHILLER, R. J. Behavioral economics and institutional innovation. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1499, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 2005.

SHILLER, R. J. The life-cycle personal accounts proposal for social security: An evaluation. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1504, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 2005.

SHILLER, R. J. The life-cycle personal accounts proposal for social security: A review. NBER Working Papers 11300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 2005.

SHILLER, R. J. Household reaction to changes in housing wealth. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1459, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 2004.

SHILLER, R. J. Radical financial innovation. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1461, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 2004.

SHILLER, R. J. The invention of inflation-indexed bonds in early America. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1442, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 2003.

SHILLER, R. J. From efficient market theory to behavioral finance. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1385, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 2002.

JEEMAN, J., SHILLER, R. J. One simple test of Samuelson’s dictum for the stock market. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1386, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 2002.

SHILLER, R. J. Bubbles, human judgment, and expert opinion. Cowles FoundationDiscussion Papers 1303, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 2001.

CASE, K. E., QUIGLEY, J. M., SHILLER, R. J. Comparing wealth effects: The stock market versus the housing market. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1335, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 2001.

ATHANASOULIS, S., SHILLER, R. J. Defining residual risk-sharing opportunities: Pooling world income components. Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm209, Yale School of Management, 2001.

CAMPBELL, J. Y., SHILLER, R. J. Valuation ratios and the long-run stock market outlook: An update. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1295, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 2001.

SHILLER, R. J. Measuring bubble expectations and investor confidence. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1212, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1999.

SHILLER, R. J., WEISS, A. N. Evaluating real estate valuation systems. Papers 983r, Yale – Economic Growth Center, 1999.

ATHANASOULIS, S. G., SHILLER, R. J. World income components: Measuring and exploiting risk-sharing opportunities. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1239, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1999.

SHILLER, R. J. Designing indexed units of account. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1179, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1998.

SHILLER, R. J. Human behavior and the efficiency of the financial system. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1172, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1998.

SHILLER, R. J. Indexed units of account: Theory and assesment of historical experience. Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 28, Central Bank of Chile, 1998.

SHILLER, R. J., WEISS, A. N. Moral hazard in home equity conversion. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1177, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1998.

SHILLER, R. J. Social security and institutions for intergenerational, intragenerational and international risk sharing. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1185, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1998.

SHILLER, R. J. Expanding the scope of individual risk management: Moral hazard and other behavioral considerations. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1145, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1997.

ATHANASOULIS, S. G., SHILLER, R. J. The significance of the market portfolio. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1154, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1997.

CAMPBELL, J. Y., SHILLER, R. J. A scorecard for indexed government data. Harvard Institute for Economic Research Working Papers 1758, Harvard – Institute of Economic Research, 1996.

CAMPBELL, J. Y., SHILLER, R. J. A scorecard for indexed government debt. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1125, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1996.

SHILLER, R. J. Why do people dislike inflation? Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1115, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1996.

SHILLER, R. J. Conversation, information, and herd behavior. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1092, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1995.

SHILLER, R. J., SCHNEIDER, R. Labor income indices designed for use in contracts promoting income risk management. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1110, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1995.

SHILLER, R. J., CASE, K. E., WEISS, A. N. Mortage default risk and real estate prices: The use of index-based futures and options in real estate. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1098, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University 1995.

SHILLER, R. J. Hedging inflation and income risks. Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 94-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 1994.

SHILLER, R. J., WEISS, A. N. Home equity insurance. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1074, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1994.

SHILLER, R. J. Aggregate income risks and hedging mechanisms. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1048, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1993.

SHILLER, R. J., KON-YA, F., TSUTSUI, Y. Expanding the scope of expectations data collection: The U.S. and Japanese stock markets. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1012, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1992.

SHILLER, R. J. Measuring asset values for cash settlement in derivative markets: Hedonic repeated measures indices and perpetual futures. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1036, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1992.

BELTRATTI, A. E., SHILLER, R. J. Actual and warranted relations between asset prices. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 970, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1991.

SHILLER, R. J. Arithmetic repeat sales price estimators. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 971, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1991.

CASE, K. E., SHILLER, R. J., WEISS, A. N. Index-based futures and options markets in real estate. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1006, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1991.

SHILLER, R. J., KON-YA, F., TSUTSUI, Y. Speculative behavior in the stock markets: Evidence from the Unites States and Japan. NBER Working Papers 3613, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1991.

CAMPBELL, J. Y., SHILLER, R. J. Yield spreads and interest rate movement: A bird’s eye view. NBER Working Papers 3153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1991.

CASE, K. E., SHILLER, R. J. Forecasting prices and excess returns in the housing market. NBER Working Papers 3368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1990.

SHILLER, R. J., BOYCKO, M., KOROBOV, V. Popular attitudes towards free markets: The Soviet Union and the United States compared. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 952, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1990.

SHILLER, R. J., BELTRATTI, A. E. Stock prices and bond yields: Can their co-movements be explained in terms of present value models? Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 953, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1990.

SHILLER, R. J. Comovements in stock prices and comovements in dividends. NBER Working Papers 2846, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1989.

CASE, K. E., SHILLER, R. J. The efficiency of the market for single-family homes. NBER Working Papers 2506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1989.

SHILLER, R. J. Initial public offerings: Investor behavior and underpricing. NBER Working Papers 2806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1989.

CAMPBELL, J. Y., SHILLER, R. J. Interpreting cointegrated models. NBER Working Papers 2568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1989.

SHILLER, R. J., CASE, K. E. The behavior of home buyers in boom and post-boom markets. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 890, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1988.

CAMPBELL, J. Y., SHILLER, R. J. The dividend ratio model and small sample bias: A Monte Carlo study. NBER Technical Working Papers 0067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1988.

FAIR, R. C., SHILLER, R. J. The informational content of ex ante forecasts. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 857, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1988.

SHILLER, R. J., KON-YA, F., TSUTSUI, Y. Investor behavior in the October 1987 stock market crash: The case of Japan. NBER Working Papers 2684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1988.

CAMPBELL, J. Y., SHILLER, R. J. Stock prices, earnings and expected dividends. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1988.

FAIR, R. C., SHILLER, R. J. Econometric modelling as information aggregation. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 833R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1987.

SHILLER, R. J. Investor behavior in the October 1987 stock market crash: Survey evidence. NBER Working Papers 2446, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1987.

CASE, K. E., SHILLER, R. J. Prices of single family homes since 1970: New indexes for four cities. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 851, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1987.

SHILLER, R. J., McCULLOCH, J. H. The term structure of interest rates. NBER Working Papers 2341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1987.

SHILLER, R. J. Ultimate sources of aggregate variability. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 816, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1987.

CAMPBELL, J. C., SHILLER, R. J. Cointegration and tests of present value models. Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1986.

SHILLER, R. J., CAMPBELL, J. Y. The dividend-price ratio and expectations of future dividends and discount factors. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 812, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1986.

POUND, J., SHILLER, R. J. Speculative behavior of institutional investors. NBER Working Papers 1964, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1986.

SHILLER, R. J., POUND, J. Survey evidence on diffusion of interest among institutional investors. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 785, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1986.

SHILLER, R. J., POUND, J. Survey evidence on diffusion of investment among institutional investors. NBER Working Papers 1851, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1986.

SHILLER, R. J. Conventional valuation and the term structure of interest rates. NBER Working Papers 1610, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1985.

GROSSMAN, S. J., MELINO, A., SHILLER, R. J. Estimating the continuous time consumption based asset pricing model. NBER Working Papers 1643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1985.

SHILLER, R. J. Stock prices and social dynamics. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 719R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1984.

PERRON, P., SHILLER, R. J. Testing the random walk hypothesis: Power versus frequency of observation. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 732, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1984.

SHILLER, R. J., CAMPBELL, J. Y., SCHOENHOLTZ, K. L. Toward rates and future policy: Interpreting the term structure of interest rates. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 667, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1983.

CAMPBELL, J. Y., SHILLER, R. J. A simple account of the behavior of long-term interest rates. NBER Working Papers 1203, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1983.

SHILLER, R. J. Consumption, asset markets, and macroeconomic fluctuations. NBER Working Papers 0838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1982.

GROSSMAN, S. J., SHILLER, R. J. Consumption correlatedness and risk measurement in economies with non trade assets and heterogenous information. NBER Working Papers 0690, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1982.

SHILLER, R. J. Smoothness priors and nonlinear regression. NBER Technical Working Papers 0025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1982.

SHILLER, R. J. The use of volatility measures in assessing market efficiency. NBER Working Papers 0565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1981.

SHILLER, R. J. Alternative tests of rational expectation models: The case of the term structure. NBER Working Papers 0563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1980.

SHILLER, R. J. Do stock prices move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in dividends? NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1980.

SHILLER, R. J. Can the Fed control real interest rates? NBER Working Papers 0348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1979.

SHILLER, R. J. Alternative prior representations of smoothness for distributed lag estimation. NBER Working Papers 0089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1975.

SHILLER, R. J. Rational expectations and the dynamic structure of macroeconomic models: A critical review. NBER Working Papers 0093, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1975.

SHILLER, R. J. Estimation of the investment and price equations of a macroeconometric model. Staff Studies 61, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), 1971.

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Robert James Shiller